Mayor Sean Strub (File photo by Frances Ruth Harris)
Editor’s note: Milford Mayor Sean Strub sent the following letter dated May 22 to Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf and Dr. Rachel Levine, Pennsylvania Secretary of Health.
Dear Governor Wolf and Dr. Levine,
Thank you for your leadership during this pandemic. Deliberate, considered and attentive data-based decision-making, under very difficult circumstances and intense political, economic and public health pressure, is appreciated.
One key metric the Commonwealth has identified as an important, or perhaps most important, factor in “opening up” counties is the trailing 14-day new Covid-19 case count. It needs to be below 50 cases per 100,000 population for a county to potentially qualify for transitioning from the red to yellow phase, and presumably even lower to transition from yellow to green.
As of this morning, Pike County’s trailing 14-day case count was 68.5, dropping significantly over the past two weeks, but not yet below 50. However, there are two factors that many of us in Milford Borough and Pike County believe should be considered when considering this metric.
The first is Pike County’s population. While the 2019 US Census estimates it at 55,809, that number excludes our many seasonal residents.
The scope of our large seasonal residency can be understood by examining the number of census- reported housing units. Census data indicate that there are 38,982 housing units in Pike County. Of those, 21,871 are considered “occupied” (meaning full-time occupancy) and another 17,111 are considered “vacant” (meaning part-time or seasonal) housing units.
Because of the Covid-induced urban exodus, in particular. from the New York metropolitan area, many if not most of the seasonal homes have been occupied these past few months, bringing our actual population in Pike County to a much higher number; perhaps 100,000 or more.
Pike County’s percentage of part-time or seasonal housing units is significantly higher than Wayne, Monroe, Carbon and other counties in Northeast PA. If the actual population in the county these past few months was considered the population denominator, rather than the census data, we would have reached the <50 cases per 100,000 population threshold much earlier.
The second factor is that we have recently learned that Pennsylvania is one of four states that has included positive Covid-19 antibody tests as part of the Covid case count. While it is important to track these positive antibody tests, and those testing positive for antibodies need to be tested for the virus, our belief is that counting these positive antibody tests as part of the newly-reported cases is potentially misleading.
We encourage the DOH to track and consider these cases separately; as Vermont and Virginia (two of the four states that previously were combining the counts) have announced will be their policy going forward.
This may be a particular problem in Pike because of the influx of New Yorkers to their weekend homes. More than 20% of New York City residents have reportedly tested positive for Covid-19 antibodies. Many of those New Yorkers who relocated to their Pike County homes did so prior to widespread and ready availability of antibody testing.
We believe that a number of them may have gotten tested for antibodies once they were in Pike—many then past the point when they were infectious—and their resulting positive tests made our new Covid-19 caseload look higher than it really was.
This is especially problematic because we promoted antibody testing in Pike County for the past several weeks. When LabCorp and Quest facilities made the test available a few weeks ago, we let the community know and encouraged those who were asymptomatic, or did not have symptoms serious enough to qualify for testing for the virus, to get tested for antibodies.
Just earlier this week, our Milford Covid Relief Fund offered to pay for antibody testing for first responder volunteers with our Milford Fire Department and EMS service, as well as employees of Milford Borough, including all of our police department personnel.
We were chagrined to learn that our promotion of antibody testing may risk contributing to increasing our 14-day trailing Covid 19 case count in Pike County.
Finally, besides these two data-based concerns about the metrics used to determine when it is safe for a county to open, we also want to point out that Milford Borough and Pike County have been in the forefront of combating the pandemic and expect to continue in this role.
Milford Borough’s Public Safety Committee encouraged residents to stay in their homes and businesses to cutback or close on March 12; we believe we were the first governmental subdivision in the Commonwealth to take such an action.
Our ad hoc Milford Covid Volunteer Task Force undertook an aggressive community education and engagement program very early, including inspiring 100s of local volunteers to make masks and face coverings long before the Centers for Disease Control reversed their previous guidance concerning face coverings.
We have engaged leading infectious disease and public health experts to provide guidance and help educate and mobilize our community and are working on a number of measures to support our business community, particularly our commercial district in Milford.
Many of the restaurants, retailers and hospitality-oriented businesses are facing uncertain futures, some have already announced they will not be reopening. This is a crisis in our community and we want to do what we can to help and we look forward to working with DCED and other agencies to mitigate the damage to the extent possible.
With hindsight, there are certainly things we could have done earlier or better, but overall we are very proud of our community and our county’s response. And once Pike County reopens, we are determined not to see a resurgence in cases that could necessitate it getting closed down again.
Thank you for your service and consideration of the points raised above. We look forward to Pike going to the yellow phase very soon and to the green phase soon thereafter as it is safe for us to do so.
Respectfully,
Sean Strub, Mayor